Looking Back At A Lukewarm Watches And Wonders 2024 With Some Hot And Cold Watches

Big names presented uncomplicated, small changes, but the level of complication is also on the rise

April 18, 2024

comments 29

A Watches and Wonders impression is best served cold. A little distance from the fair is necessary to transform impressions into organized thoughts. Six days should do the trick. So, what impression did the biggest watch show on Earth make on me? Well, going through my notes led to this story that includes some hot and cold watches I saw during an ultimately lukewarm Watches and Wonders 2024.

So, this is what happened when Watches and Wonders 2024 opened its doors on Tuesday, April 9th at 8:30: everyone who had something to post — the fair welcomed 49,000 visitors, including 1,500 media folks — ran to Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Tudor, the brands that don’t do embargoed press releases ahead of the fair. Within minutes, these three brands’ highly anticipated novelties are online, and the dust settles.

Looking back at a lukewarm Watches and Wonders 2024: did the “Big Three” deliver?

The fact that Tudor is in the top three brands to see is impressive. The release of the Black Bay in 2012 marked the start of a remarkable rise for the brand. Before 2012, nobody bothered to look at the display cases of the Tudor booth, which was attached to the booth of its big sister Rolex. Come 2024, Tudor has been the proud owner of a standalone booth for four years, and after Rolex, it’s the next brand people want to take a look at once Palexpo opens its doors.

During the times of Baselworld, Rolex and Patek Philippe were the “Big Two” of the fair. When these two powerhouses moved to Geneva and joined the fair once set up by Richemont and some partners, they immediately became the main attraction. But it’s no longer this dynamic duo that rules the roost. Tudor has risen to the top, and now it’s safe to say that the brand with the shield is part of a power trio. And it seems that newcomer Tudor is actually now the second brand in line; right after checking out Rolex, Tudor is up, and Patek comes after that. Did the “Power Trio” deliver?

First things first — Rolex

Rolex never delivers. Let me explain. In the run-up to Watches and Wonders, Rolex predictions and wishes are shared in large numbers. Many people wanted a “Coke” GMT-Master II. Others, like me, hoped for a titanium Milgauss, and the possible return of the Turn-O-Graph was also discussed. Rolex didn’t deliver any of these. Instead, we got nothing all that new; the novelties were simply iterations of existing models. Was it to calm down the market? Well, Rolex CEO Jean-Frédéric Dufour, who’s also president of the Watches and Wonders Foundation, pointed out at the beginning of the fair that due to the strong Swiss franc, the rising price of gold, and the uncertain geopolitical situation, the watch market has lost momentum and cooled down significantly.

Dufour also had something to say about the way people perceive watches, mainly, those from Rolex. “I don’t like it when people compare watches to stocks,” he said. “It sends the wrong message and is dangerous. We make products, not investments.” And in that light, the release of nothing brand new makes sense. There was a Perpetual 1908 in platinum, for instance, and a yellow gold Deepsea, both of which are very niche. We also got the steel GMT-Master II (126710GRNR) with a gray and black bezel (which debuted last year on full-gold and steel/gold versions) and the model name and GMT hand in green. No, there was no crowd-pleasing “Coke” or even a weird iteration like the green and black lefty from 2021.

In my humble opinion, the Rolex releases were like the depressing main character from the 2003 movie The Cooler, a guy with a dark vibe who’s hired by a Las Vegas casino to jinx gamblers on a winning streak.

Off to Tudor, we go

After Rolex, it was just a small step to the brand next door, Tudor — I would’ve rather gone to see Patek next, but the crowd pushed me a door down. Unlike Rolex, Tudor did serve “Coke” this year. It’s the completely new Black Bay 58 GMT that also uses a completely new movement, the METAS-certified, Kenissi-manufactured MT5450-U automatic GMT caliber that’s slimmer than the one in the Black Bay Pro. The 39 × 12.8mm Black Bay 58 GMT has all the assets that make a commercially successful watch. The “Coke” colorway paired with the gilt-tone theme looks familiar, and the size and the price are right — the version on rubber costs €4,450, and the one on the bracelet will set you back €4,670. The watch is not revolutionary, but after the 2012 Black Bay revolution, Tudor entered the evolution phase. I think this phase could continue for many, many years.

Speaking of evolution, there’s also the new METAS-certified Black Bay. Last year, this 41mm chronometer diver debuted with a burgundy bezel and gold-tone details, and this year, it surfaces as the best alternative to a Rolex “Sub.” The Tudor on an Oyster-style bracelet with faux rivets has a price of €4,510. The watch you want but can’t have for all kinds of reasons, the 41mm Submariner (124060), will set you back €9,500. Will half the price bring you half the joy of a real Sub, or can the new Black Bay Master Chronometer punch way above its weight and deliver a knockout that will make you completely forget about the Rolex? I think the answer to that is very personal. I don’t think the new “BB” can hit me hard enough to forget about the Sub, but I’m guessing I’m a minority.

Denim: is it cool or lazy? — Patek Philippe dresses up/down for Watches and Wonders

You’re right; in my introduction article on the Patek Philippe World Time Date 5330G and Nautilus Chronograph 5980G, I was positive about the double-denim duo the brand brought to the show. I still think the World Time Date 5330G looks great, and the jeans-look leather strap works. The Nautilus, however, with its more intricate connection between case and strap and the way more prominent case shape and size, doesn’t work as well. But what’s more interesting to point out is that both aforementioned watches already existed with different dials or in different materials. The World Time Date 5330G debuted with a purple dial as a special Tokyo edition, and Aquanaut Travel Time 5164 already existed in rose gold. Plus, the in-line perpetual calendar 5236P already came out in 2021 with a blue dial. Sure, it got a new (and awesome) vintage-inspired opaline rose-gilt dial, but that was it.

What was truly new was the bracelet for the Golden Ellipse ref. 5738/1R-001. It’s a fully polished rose gold chain-style bracelet comprising 363 elements and more than 300 links individually mounted by hand. Well, 2024 clearly marks the year of the strap and the bracelet at Patek.

What else was new? Complications!

IWC updated the Portugieser 7 Days. The brand made small changes in terms of slimness and design details, but the result is a more sophisticated watch. The update is evolution in its finest form. The biggest shock was the name change. The 7 Days is now called the Automatic 42. Why? According to an IWC employee after the product presentation in the brand’s booth, it’s because there’s also a 40mm Portugieser with an automatic movement, and that’s called the Portugieser Automatic 40. If you ask me, this is a typical case of the strong suffering from the weak. IWC didn’t dare/want to call the less costly 40mm version the Portugieser 2.5 Days and went for Automatic 40 instead. In 2024, IWC wants to straighten out its model names, and the brand axed the most iconic one in the Portugieser collection for the sake of uniformity. Well, that’s a shame.

On the other hand, the Portugieser Eternal Calendar was one of the highlights of Watches and Wonders — please read RJ’s Hot Take and explanation of how the watch works. This calendar watch will be accurate for an impressive number of years, and it honors the spirit of traditional high watchmaking. The reintroduced Duometre collection from Jaeger-LeCoultre also puts fine watchmaking in the spotlight — there wasn’t a differently colored Reverso in sight; can you believe it? The brand’s first triple-axis tourbillon was impressive, but that €484,000 Heliotourbillon Perpetual, however mesmerizing, just wasn’t as handsome as the “entry-level” €48,400 Duometre Quantieme Lunaire with its steel case and radiant blue dial. The €97,000 platinum Duometre Chronograph Moon looked the part as well.

Dominating the conversation

Last year, the conversation at Watches and Wonders was about the Rolex models with the balloons and the jigsaw puzzle, the titanium Yacht-Master 42, and also the petite Tudor Black Bay 54. In other words, there was nothing too complicated. This year, the mainstream, lukewarm watch novelties were less talked about. But no one could look past the A. Lange & Söhne Datograph Perpetual Tourbillon Honeygold “Lumen,” which celebrated the 25th anniversary of the Datograph. First, the brand from Glashütte had a huge mock-up of the watch at its booth, and the €620,000 price was also buzzing news around the fair.

Piaget brought the thinnest tourbillon in the world, and Vacheron Constantin put the most complicated (pocket) watch ever made on display. The brand beat its very own world record with a grapefruit-sized creation packing 63 complications, including a Chinese perpetual calendar, which VC claims is a world first. That’s what 2,877 hand-finished and hand-assembled parts can do. Hermès also surprised friend and foe with the Arceau Duc Attelé, a triple-axis central tourbillon and minute repeater with an equestrian touch.

Final words on a lukewarm Watches and Wonders 2024 from Jean-Frédéric Dufour

Looking back on this year’s lukewarm Watches and Wonders also allows us to look forward and hope for stuff to heat up come 2025. But what will 2024 bring to the world of watches? Maybe it’s best to hand the mic back to Rolex CEO Dufour. “2024 will be a challenging year. It marks the end of a phase in which all manufacturers have been doing well. In good times, production tends to be too high. When markets weaken, as is the case now, retailers come under pressure to cut prices. This is extremely problematic because discounts damage emotional products like ours,” he said in an interview with Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung.

What do you think? Do you agree that discounts damage the image of watches? Or are you happy that (old-fashioned) discounts are finally making a comeback after a period of unavailability and soaring prices on the gray market? As always, have your say in the comments.

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Looking Back At A Lukewarm Watches And Wonders 2024 With Some Hot And Cold Watches

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MT
MARINMAN says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 07:24

A Rolex discount is a case full of watches, purchased at retail, anytime you walk in. If that happens, it will be interesting to see if the brand is still desirable. I remember those days. Rolex not introducing a lot of new models and focusing on filling cases with what they already have is a good strategy to help repair their reputation. Imagine someone selling you a watch is nice to you. My AD’s have always been nice and accommodating in the Rolex world. My prior experience with Rolex is full retail, no discounts, over the past 20 years.

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SC
Tam O’ Banter says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 07:37

I think there is a world of difference between a true trade show and a forum for stimulating potential purchases. Several articles about the uninspiring W&W24 lead me to wonder what a great show would have looked like.
I mean if a couple of quirky dials can “save” a show, we’re in trouble .

If the industry wants these shows to count, they have to work with them and not undermine them with year-round releases

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CD
Christopher Dean says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 08:22

Interesting to read Mr Dufour’s challenging predictions for 2024. Especially about potential retailer discounts.
The manufacturers should not have been so arrogant the way they treated there potential clients and greedy with numerous above inflation price increases. It just feels that there’s something in the air where a downturn in sales is inevitable. Interestingly, Omega have yet to have a price increase this year which they normally have done by now.

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Warky says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 08:23

I think all industry eyes will now be focused on OnlyWatch – if the previously stratospheric prices achieved aren’t repeated that’s a very clear sign that Mr Dufour is correct.

And I don’t think we will see crazy numbers. With the probable exception of the Patek which I am expecting to be their new sports model that was delayed by the cancellation of the event last year (I reckon that’s why they had nowt at W&W where it was meant to be formally released).

Going back to Dufour, he can afford to be blase. Rolex/Wilsdorfs income from property holdings will easily see them weather the storm and allow them to clamp down on any discounting ADs with an iron fist – they will probably welcome it so they can kill their franchises when they catch them and give it to Bucherer.

Brands with shareholders and weaker demand are likely to find it much more challenging. “Meh” releases like we had pretty much across the board aren’t going to help either ?‍♂️

Anyway – let’s talk about the craziness going on at Bremont Lex! Where is your article on that?!?

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1. AM
  Veliero says:
  
  Apr 18, 2024 at 11:02
  
  Will happily eat my words but think we are finally seeing the demise of Bremont unless they pull something remarkable out of the bag for their next offering. The latest line up and “rebranding” is shocking.
  
  Reply
  1. JP
    JoeyP says:
    
    Apr 18, 2024 at 19:31
    
    More Joyless Bremont chatter. If you like one of their watches, buy it. If not, don’t buy it. Why care about the perceived direction the company is going in. Why aggressively trash them and spoil it for someone who may be interested.
    
    Reply
2. MB
  MarkBu says:
  
  Apr 18, 2024 at 11:09
  
  Having gone through the Bremont thing with ABTW, I’ve decided I don’t care anymore.
  
  Reply
PhilipBWing says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 08:44

Nice write up Lex!

I’m actually fine with how W&W went, brands don’t need to reinvent the wheel every year after all. Like you mentioned with Patek, almost all models are variants of existing ones. The only truly new watch and movement was ironically a quartz Aquanaut.

It makes sense when you think of what Patek will introduce in October. From what I gather, Patek considered releasing the big new line this W&W but most likely didn’t want their new line diluted by what all the other brands were bringung out simultaneously – instead opting for a time of year where other brands won’t be bringing their new releases out.

Hell, they even downgraded the water resistance on their current sports line to place their new line on a podium when it’s released. I’m 99.9% sure their new line will have a >100m water resistance, which will make it stand out seeing how the other “sports” watches (like their dress watches) are now “only” specified at 30m…..

I think Tudor’s best release was also their most boring one (this is a good thing imo), a non-gilt, no-date, non rivet bracelet, non fauxtina 41mm BB evoking 4-5 digit subs. Very cool piece indeed!

Rolex was mostly also quite a snoozefest (again, not a bad thing imho), but their new 1908 guilloche dial was anything but. Watching them enter this territory will actually be quite interesting I think! The other models are all precious metals, save for the steel GMT which is hardly new – it’s identical to the original black GMT except 50% of the bezel is grey *shrug*.

In contrast, Richemont brands have flexed quite a bit though, which was fun to see! Cartier, Baume Mercier, JLC, and even Panerai had some cool stuff drop this W&W!

All in all, an entertaining year as usual, just a little less attention grabbing compared to other years. Then again, thinking back at the more interesting year, what was it that really stood out? A red and blue bezel Rolex GMT? Or a cerachrome bezel on their Daytona? It’s not thaaat interesting if you look back, even if the watches themselves are quite cool and have enjoyed huge amounts of success.

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1. GD
  1Gav1 says:
  
  Apr 18, 2024 at 21:48
  
  I think you may well be onto something regarding the new model standing out for having a higher stated w/r – presumably pointing to it being Patek’s first true dive watch – by dint of their recent otherwise inexplicable choice to tar everything else with the 30m brush. It makes sense, if a bit little bit ham-fisted. ¦D
  
  Reply
Ronald Faber says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 08:46

Discounts? Let’s call it going back to more normal, realistic pricing and treating luxury watches more like what they really are, watches.

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MG
maciej-g says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 09:55

There were definitely quite a few lukewarm watches… the Tudors. Tle L.U.C.s. The Patrimonies.

But generally–perhaps it’s just silly to expect an yearly event to be explosive? Olympics, Expos, Chopin competitions, etc, Venice Biennales… (I will not mention all the Grand Slams, BAFTAs, Royal Academies Summer Shows…)

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PS
PSmith says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 09:58

Looking at the overall watch industry and environment, I suspect fewer watches will be sold in the coming years and modest discounts are on the horizon.

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jh
James H says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 10:03

Watches AND Wonders? Eeh. I’d have asked for a refund under Trade Descriptions..! Just what a flagging market needs: price gouging and absolutely nothing to get excited about. A ghastly exhibition of conspicuous consumption and tastelessness – to think brands paid for this jamboree to release… nothing. The Swiss watch industry is its own worst enemy. Brands must have pulled releases to be this underwhelming.

But worse than this is that the big brands actively took a ‘let them eat cake’ approach, completely ignoring the enthusiast and the main market in a display of the most egregious, tone-deaf vulgarity. Only Tudor and TAG threw a bun to the peasants, with well conceived pieces (BB58GMT, Glassbox) that were priced appropriately (ish). Parmigiani, Chopard and Czapek knocked out some nice metal, but we need to check our heads (or crack skulls) if we accept 20k+ for steel as real.

But the (Grand?) Dad denim at Patek, gold Deep Sea and year of meh complications at Reposition Richemont (justify the price! justify the size!) were kill or cure medicine for the post-pandemic hangover. A shot in the arm or a bullet in the head? We’ll see, but so far the white Speedy takes pole and looks set to take the season by corner 1.

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AM
Veliero says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 10:22

Made my thoughts clear earlier, most to the brands simply went to the parts bin this year. I have to laugh at Dufour’s comments, “I don’t like it when people compare watches to stocks,” – “It sends the wrong message and is dangerous. We make products, not investments.” Rolex is a also culpable here, lets face it, if they stopped producing some of the unsellable models and focussed on filling the “wish lists” then perhaps there would be less grey market to fill in this demand and we could stop seeing the “exhibition only” signs, but of course Rolex likes and benefits from this hype. Couple this with the fact that in some ADs the sellers are totally ignorant to their product, it just confirms that people would buy from a vending machine if possible.

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1. SC
  Tam O’ Banter says:
  
  Apr 18, 2024 at 11:28
  
  I agree it was the ranked hypocrisy from Rolex’ chief manipulator.
  
  Reply
2. SC
  Tam O’ Banter says:
  
  Apr 18, 2024 at 11:29
  
  Rankest
  
  Reply
  1. AM
    Veliero says:
    
    Apr 18, 2024 at 12:45
    
    I own a few of their watches and am wearing on today but each time I now look at it I get this voice in my head saying “gosh, they must really think I am an idiot!”
    
    Reply
MB
MarkBu says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 10:33

I’ll never say no to a decent discount. Most of the watches I’ve bought were discounted or on sale and I’ve never wanted a watch so much I’d pay a premium. I’m rather lucky that the brands with recent supply-side shortages weren’t ones I’m that interested in.

As for the trio of brands above, their releases at W&W: Rolex – Zzzz. Patek – if you want to make a watch look ‘cool’ to your Boomer clientele then put a denim strap on it. Hard to tell if that’s misguided or just plain cynical. Tudor – not earth shattering but decent additions nonetheless.

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Enuona says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 11:06

As far as markets and Tudor goes, the production of the “recent” ones closest to my preference seems to cope with demand, and they are all available from the AD’s I’d visit for these. Whether that means that their market is fully saturated or just more or less in balance isn’t for me to say.

For a different article about the fair I tried to have a poke linking a clip from “Spinal tap” – amplifiers that runs to 11, the point being the bling factor of course. I believe Rolex turned that to 11.

Which makes more sense than people belive, I gather. Why make something new for the market segment that is pretty saturated when there is a market above with suction? They did the right thing. Don’t think a “toned down” GMT was a bad one though. A little treat to remind the plebeians that they are not forgotten.

As for Only Watch, most of the objects are pretty much the 2023 releases from what I can see, and the only ones not yet launced (Chaykin, Patek, Lederer) will become public April 22nd.

As far as complications goes, both production methods, metallurgy, machinery and tools keeps developing. Same goes for consolidation of production. CAD keeps evolving too, and the integration design to machine becomes stronger. Integration is nothing new though, for instance we used Kockums Styrbjörn for ship construction and building more than 30 years ago. Straight from CAD to cutting. What’s different is the sophistication, precision and repeatability. Besides, “3D printing” comes into play by the likes of APworks with Scalmalloy, titanium alloys and others.

In total, it opens up for more complications with rationalised and more consistent/repeatable quality production. The digital handling of designs allow for wider application of new features or improved quality in consolidated movement / case factories. By all accounts it should provide more precise and more reliable complicated watches. Believe that arrived a while ago, but it is now expanding to a wider display of watches from more brands.

Probably, “soul” would loose out to a certain extent, depending upon the efforts invested in finishing and art applied to relevant elements where that makes a difference, but one should probably tune up the expectations related to technical performance to 11 too, and that goes for all levels of horology, Selitta/Seiko/PM80/Miyota up.

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TW
Berlin_Tony says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 13:33

I’m still waiting for the Omega X Swatch Irony Moonswatch Mission to the Moon

I don’t want one but the hype will be off the wall

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Tigerbite88 says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 13:58

I first got into luxury watches when discounts were the norm.
I can understand that they aren’t for the likes of Rolex, but to even consider the likes of iwc, zenith, jlc etc etc without a discount is totally alien to me…..

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AM
tmc says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 14:47

there’s no doubt that the watch market topped out recently but if you follow the prices of highly desired pieces such as the nautilus you’ll discover that are suffering a substantial drop in price they have flatlined for the past 6 months at a level of approximately two and and half times their original retail price. I suspect they will start climbing again in price in the future. Why? Because some are no longer in production while others still be produced are of superior quality to recent versions. An example of this is Patek’s decision to reduce water resistance to 3 bar on all its aquanaut and nautilus still in production. My advice is to pay up during this lull and get something you like that was made right! you won’t regret it and neither will your heirs.

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DK
Ayreonaut says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 15:44

“When markets weaken … retailers come under pressure to cut prices. This is extremely problematic because discounts damage emotional products like ours.”

Completely out of touch with the normal enthusiast buyer. We buy watches at the price that we feel is fair. Overpaying for watches doesn’t enhance an emotional connection.

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1. SC
  Tam O’ Banter says:
  
  Apr 19, 2024 at 00:25
  
  All CEOs are. And no matter which words come out of their mouths, the only thing they are saying is, “Give me more money.”
  I remember one interview with Head of something or other and they said, “The only priority for me is quality.”
  The article showed a stopped chronograph with the hands in all directions and a blemish on the dial!
  They’re only talking to themselves
  
  Reply
MJ
Martinl says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 16:10

JLC and IWC had a good year with their complications. The new editions from Lange and Laurent Ferrier were amazing, and that is about it. Maybe it was nice to see less hype pieces – the watches this year would have to have been planned 2021-2022 when no one knew what was going on with the world or economy, so no surprise to see manufacturers playing it safe.

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RealRolexFakeTudor says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 17:25

The Ulysse Nardin Freak S Nomad shows the kind of cutting edge watches that can be produced, if anyone wants that, but there are only so many bezel variations that can be applied to the GMT-Master II.

Speaking of the GMT-Master II, the traveller/“true” GMT is my favorite watch, but it’s going to be hard for prestige brands to lead with traveller GMTs now that Swatch Group and Citizen have enabled sub-$1,000 traveller GMTs.

I have Rolexes and Omegas, but my latest watch is an homage of an homage to the Rolex Explorer II by a cheeky Chinese brand called San Martin. A Seiko NH34 movement and in many ways close to Rolex/Omega finishing for $240 (applied indices version). Not quite there, but much nicer than the kind of Seiko I could get for that money. And it is thinner than the homage watch it homages.

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Brian-Waller says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 17:34

I’m not sure I want Rolex to deliver. Suppose it won’t sway me in any particular direction whether they do or don’t. It’s the evolution of decades that keeps the vintage pieces relevant as well as adding a little panache to that stream (like Volvos and 911s).

I also don’t think a discount is a hit against a brand’s value perception unless we’re talking about an extremely flawed model that won’t move (and it’s the flaws that hurt the rep score) or we’re talking about one of those brands always has a retail and a discount price, like a certain Florida based watch company. I like what I like regardless of price or discounts.

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MA
Mike76 says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 23:15

I did not see one watch that I’d just have to have. I thought there were a few nice releases but certainly nothing extraordinary. And honestly, I think most of us are used to yearly price increases but they’ve gotten to the point where some of these watches are so expensive that I feel my interest has waned in new releases and I’ve begun focusing more on the pre-owned market. So, even if there’d been something outstanding released, I’d probably not be a serious buyer anyway.

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FredM says:

Apr 18, 2024 at 23:43

During this event, participating brands have presented both the most complicated watch in the world AND, SEPARATELY, broken a record for the most accurate moon phase complication by a factor of I believe 20, all while making a secular perpetual calendar that’s accurate until the first unpredictable event in our calendar in the year 4000… seriously, people, what more do you want from this kind if event? Just because we’re all looking elsewhere, caught up in an endless thirst for another hype watch induced dopamine hit doesn’t mean the fair was a bad one. And besides, what’s wrong with a more subdued GMT? It’s easily the most elegant one in the line. I heard nobody complaining that the Cartier offerings didn’t have loud plastic looking red ceramic parts to disturb their dashing designs, so why is it a problem in a Rolex?

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